Week 5 Recap

A solid week for our Spread picks, but tough week on our Money & Adjusted Line picks as overall we went 4-4 with a 4-2 record in our spread picks and 0-2 in our Money and Adjusted Line picks. We are now 24-17 on the year with 19-14 against the spread and 5-3 in our Moneyline and Adjusted Line picks.  Below is what secured us a 4-2 spread win for the week:

With all that said let's get down to this week's picks and hope to continue a solid year from the model!

 Patriots +7 vs. Houston Texans:

The New England Patriots are 7-point underdogs against the Houston Texans, but our model is much more optimistic about their chances, projecting a close game with a 0.8-point win for the Patriots. The old model was also positive on New England but gave them a slightly larger 2-point edge.  I don't think anyone is chomping at the bits for a chance to bet on the Patriots after watching them this week, but 7 points is a lot and the model likes the odds of them keeping it close.

Cardinals +5.5 at Green Bay Packers:

The Arizona Cardinals are 5.5-point underdogs against the Green Bay Packers, but our model predicts the Cardinals to make this a close contest, projecting them to lose by just 0.7 points. The old model had a similar outlook with a 1.1-point edge to the Packers, showing that while the Packers are favored, the game may be closer than expected.

Panthers +6 vs. Atlanta Falcons:

The Carolina Panthers are 6-point underdogs against the Atlanta Falcons, and our model projects a more favorable outcome for the Panthers, predicting them to lose by just 1.6 points.  I'm worried Arizona coming off their high of beating the 49ers will have a letdown similar to how the Rams had one after their comeback victory, but the model has no such concerns.

Ravens -6.5 vs. Washington Commanders:

The Baltimore Ravens are 6.5-point favorites against the Washington Commanders, and our model projects a dominant win for Baltimore, predicting a 10.9-point victory. Washington has been on fire of late, but the model doesn't feed into this and likes Lamar and his crazy awesome record against the NFC to win comfortably.

49ers -3 at Seattle Seahawks:

The San Francisco 49ers are 3-point favorites against the Seattle Seahawks, and our model projects an even larger margin, predicting a 7-point win for the 49ers. The old model was far more conservative, only giving the 49ers a 0.4-point advantage. Both teams are coming off tough losses last week, but hopefully SF is the one that recovers strong.

Giants +3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals:

The New York Giants are 3.5-point underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals, but our model predicts the Giants to make this a competitive game, projecting a narrow 0.4-point loss for New York. The old model was a little less favorable of the Giants, projecting a 3.1-point loss. While the Giants have had their struggles, the model suggests this matchup might be closer than expected, potentially within the spread.