Week 3 Recap

Another solid weekend going 6-2 total record for our picks by going 4-2 against the spread and 2-0 in our Adjusted & Moneyline picks.  We are now 17-8 overall with 13-8 vs the spread and 4-0 on our Moneyline and Adjusted line picks.  With that said, I have one major gripe this week and that is team's not taking the points.  I'm looking at you, Atlanta, who would have secured the spread victory with a field goal and been in position to win with a field goal on their final drive.  They weren't the only culprit with Nick Sirianni doing his best to lose the model the Philly game going for it on 4th and short with 12 seconds left in the half.  What are doing after you get the first?  I'll tell you what. Throw a fade 5 feet out of the endzone, over the non-AJ Brown wideout and kick the field goal after.   All these broadcasts stating how the numbers say by 54% a team should go for it.  I doubt they are taking the 2022, 2023 Eagles with Jason Kelce at center out of that analysis.  Those teams, that center, were a freakish outlier converting at over 92% on tush pushes (high volume) single-handedly skewing the NFL data.  Most of the teams including this year's Eagles can't do that.  If you are trying to run outside the tackles on 4th and short you need to reevaluate whether you should be consistently trying to go for it on 4th down.

With all that said let's get down to this week's picks and hope to continue a solid year from the model!

 Dolphins -1 vs. Tennessee Titans: The Miami Dolphins are slight 1-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans, but our model is far more confident, projecting a 10.3-point victory for the Dolphins. Of course, Tua is out for Miami and they have a backup playing, but the Titans have Will Levis playing and he's on the road.  The model's favorite thing in the world is fading bad QBs on the road and that's the primary driver of this large discrepancy. 

Jets -7 vs. Denver Broncos: The New York Jets are 7-point favorites against the Denver Broncos, and our model is even more optimistic, projecting a 12.0-point victory. The Jets have been solid defensively and Aaron Rodgers and the offense are starting to look potent. Although Bo Nix and the Broncos offense looked solid last week that was at home.  A rookie QB on the road traveling cross country against an elite defense has the model heavily favoring the Jets.

Vikings +3 at Green Bay Packers: The Minnesota Vikings are 3-point underdogs against the Green Bay Packers, but our model views this game differently, predicting the Vikings to win by only 2.2 points. The Vikings defense and Sam Darnold have both been performing extremely well this season and the model projects that to continue. I projected this game with Jordan Love starting and it looks like Vegas did the same.

Falcons -1.5 vs. New Orleans Saints: The Atlanta Falcons are favored by 1.5 points against the New Orleans Saints, and our model projects a more comfortable margin, predicting a 7.9-point win for Atlanta. The Falcons' defense has been solid, and Cousins has been playing well.  They really need to do a better job on capitalizing in the red zone and now that they aren't playing the Chiefs their chances for pass interference to be actually called should go up drastically. The old model had the Falcons winning by 1.0, but the current projection shows more confidence in their ability to dominate this matchup.

Panthers +5 vs Cincinnati Bengals: The Cincinnati Bengals are 5-point favorites against the Carolina Panthers, and our model suggests this game will be close, with the Bengals winning by only 0.7 points. The old model was similarly cautious, with a -1.6-point margin. While the Bengals are the better team, they’ve struggled to put together complete performances.  See not forcing a punt or turnover against a rookie QB who was on the road. 

Browns +1 at Las Vegas Raiders: The Cleveland Browns are slight 1-point underdogs against the Las Vegas Raiders, but our model predicts a 1.7-point loss for the Browns. The old model had the Browns winning by 0.7 points, but the updated model has slightly shifted the odds in favor of the Raiders. Still, with the Browns’ defense being their strength, they may be able to keep this game close and potentially cover the small spread.