Week 4

Looking for back-to-back-to-back 3-2 weeks tonight as the Lions vs Ravens game is our rubber match.  With that said I'm trying to get my picks out earlier as the spreads move quickly and out of our favor about 90% of the time which shows that Vegas recognizes the model's skill.  I think as I wrote this the Jaguars 49er's has already moved a point towards the Jags.  With that said here are this week's picks!  I will likely provide a mid-week update as I'm waiting on some injury news before formalizing another pick or two.

 Falcons +3 vs. Washington Commanders
Books have Atlanta +3 at home; our model makes it Falcons -2. Drivers: Atlanta’s overall offensive talent (+1.5) and a downgrade to Washington with Jayden Daniels’ passing (-2). Washington’s secondary (+0.5) keeps it from being wider, but there’s ~5 points of value. Play: Falcons +3; ML sprinkle is live.

Panthers +5.5 at New England Patriots
Market says Panthers +5.5; we have Panthers +1 (essentially a coin flip). Bryce Young’s passing (+1.0) plus New England’s weak secondary (+1.0) buoy CAR, with Carolina’s own secondary (-1.5) the main counter. ~4.5 points of value to the dog. Lean Panthers +5.5; small ML sprinkle.

Jaguars +4.5 at San Francisco 49ers
Line is JAX +4.5; model is JAX +0.5 (Jags by a whisker). Case: Jags’ strong secondary (+1) and overall defense (+1), with the 49ers’ offensive talent a bit down (-1). About 4 points of value. Play: Jaguars +4.5, consider ML.

Jets +2.5 at Miami Dolphins
Books hang Jets +2.5; model flips to Jets -1. Miami’s depleted O-line (+2) and shaky secondary (+1) create openings, while Tua’s passing form (-1) is the counter. ~3.5 points of value. Play: Jets +2.5; light ML sprinkle.