Week 11

A PERFECT week at 4-0 leaves the model with an overall record of 29-21 against the spread.  A very nice recovery from a rough two week, but as I stated those two weeks had a lot of bad breaks that should smooth out throughout the year and last week was a great example.  Through 50 games we are just under the model's stretch goal of 60% on the year at 58% which is more than respectable!  Hoping to continue that trend through the rest of the year.  With that said here are this week's picks:  

 Bears +3 at Minnesota Vikings
Books make Chicago a +3 road dog; our model flips it to Bears -2.5. The edge leans on McCarthy’s inconsistent passing (+2 toward CHI) and a merely average Vikings secondary (+1), with the Bears’ own beat-up secondary (-2) as the main give-back. That’s roughly 5.5 points of value versus the spread. Play: Bears +3; ML sprinkle is very live.

Cowboys -3.5 at Las Vegas Raiders
Market sits Cowboys -3.5; we project Cowboys -6.5. The case: the Raiders’ overall bad offense (+2 for DAL) and Dak Prescott’s passing form (+1.5) tilt this heavily toward Dallas, while the Cowboys’ shaky secondary (-1.5) keeps a back door slightly open. Still about 3 points of value. Play: Cowboys -3.5.

Lions +1.5 at Philadelphia Eagles
Oddsmakers have Detroit +1.5 on the road; our model makes it Lions -0.5. Drivers: Detroit’s offensive talent (+1.5) and the Eagles’ underperforming secondary (+1) both point to Lions’ efficiency, with Jalen Hurts’ passing (-1) as the counter. Net ~2 points of value. Play: Lions +1.5; consider a light ML sprinkle.

Jets +11.5 at New England Patriots
The market is Jets +11.5; we show Jets +7.5 (losing, but by less). Factors: New England’s shaky secondary (-1) and an average offensive line (-0.5) limit the Pats’ ceiling, while the Jets’ poor offensive talent (-2) caps their scoring. That still leaves about 4 points of value on the big underdog. Play: Jets +11.5 and hope the defense keeps it ugly.