Week 10 Recap

After a poor start to the weekend we ended squeaking out a winning week at 3-2-1 by going 2-2-1 against the spread and 1-0 in the Moneyline picks.  We are now 44-30-1 on the year with 36-26-1 against the spread and 8-4 in our Moneyline and Adjusted Line picks.  I ended up running the model twice, once with the mixed player projections of last year and this year and another run with just this year's player projections.  This is to further account for surprise teams such as the Cardinals, Chargers, and Commanders who are overperforming and the surprise underperformers such as the Jets and Bears.

With that said let's get into this week's picks!

Falcons +2 at Denver Broncos:

The Atlanta Falcons are 2-point underdogs against the Denver Broncos, but our model projects a 3.4-point win for Atlanta. The Falcons' offensive talent (+1.9) and the Broncos' poor offensive talent (+1.3) give Atlanta a solid edge. While the Falcons' poor pass defense (-1.4) is a concern, it’s not enough to offset the model’s confidence in the Falcons covering the spread and winning outright.

The Philadelphia Eagles are 3-point favorites against the Washington Commanders, and our model projects a decisive 6.9-point victory for Philadelphia. The Commanders’ poor pass defense (+2.3) and the Eagles’ offensive talent (+1.6) favor the home team. Although Jayden Daniel’s passing ability is factored in as a slight negative (-2.2), the model is confident in the Eagles covering the spread.

The Minnesota Vikings are 6-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans, and our model projects a commanding 10.5-point win for the Vikings. Will Levis’ poor passing ability (+3.2) and the Titans’ poor offensive talent (+3.1) drive this pick. While the Vikings’ poor pass coverage (-1.2) is noted, the model strongly favors Minnesota to dominate and cover.

Personally, I hate this pick as the Jets have killed the model so far this season.  I did readjust the projections to only account for this season and it still has the Jet's heavily favored mainly due to playing at home.  Vegas has the Jets as 3.5-point favorites against the Indianapolis Colts, and our model projects a comfortable 7.1-point victory for the Jets. Joe Flacco’s poor passing performance (+3.5) and the Colts’ poor pass coverage (+3.1) give the Jets a major edge. The Colts’ overall offensive struggles (-1.5) further support the Jets as solid favorites to cover.

The Detroit Lions are heavy 13-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and our model projects them to win convincingly by 16.7 points. Trevor Lawrence’s passing struggles (+4.5), the Jaguars’ poor offensive talent (+2.7), and Jared Goff’s consistent passing ability (-0.3) make Detroit an easy pick to cover the large spread.