Week 13

A  3-0-1 undefeated week leaves the model with an overall record of 34-23-1 against the spread!  We are right at under 60% (60% if you round up) on the year against the spread which is the goal.  With that said here are this week's picks!

Falcons -2.5 at Jets
Books have ATL -2.5; our model makes it Falcons -8. Drivers: Tyrod Taylor’s subpar passing (+2) and the Jets’ overall poor offense (+2) push this Atlanta’s way, with the Falcons’ subpar pass coverage (-0.5) as the counter. ~5.5 points of value. Play: Falcons -2.5.

Bears +7 at Eagles
Market lists CHI +7; we make it Bears +1. Edges: Philly’s banged-up secondary (+1.5) and a struggling Eagles offense (+1) help the Bears; Hurts’ passing (-1.5) trims it back. ~6 points of value. Play: Bears +7.

Commanders +6.5 vs. Broncos
Line is WAS +6.5; model has Commanders +1.5. Case: Mariota’s passing (+1) and Denver’s merely average WR corps (+0.5) aren’t enough to fully punish Washington’s struggling secondary (-1.5). Net ~5 points of value. Play: Commanders +6.5.

Seahawks -9.5 vs. Vikings
Books show SEA -9.5; our model SEA -13.5. Drivers: McCarthy’s poor road passing (+4) and Seattle’s strong secondary (+1.5) tilt this toward a bigger number; the Vikings’ healthy OL (-1) is the counter. ~4 points of value. Play: Seahawks -9.5.

Possible Injury play Cardinals +2.5 at Bucs 

If Baker is injured then the model has the Cardinals favored -2.5 and the play is to take the Cardinals if they are getting points or it's a pick-em.  If Baker plays then this is a fair line.