Week 12 Recap

Tough week going 2-4 on the week.  I will take personal blame and spare the model on two of those losses as the 49ers game I had projected a decent amount of players such as Brock Purdy suiting up when they turned out to be injured.  For the Giants game I projected too high for the QB play given the sample size from last year and should have stayed away or projected unknown back-up QB play.  Give the week we fell to 49-37-1 on the year with 41-32-1 against the spread and 8-5 in our Moneyline and Adjusted Line picks as we did successful stay away from the 49ers game against the Moneyline.  

With that said let's get into this week's picks!

Seahawks -1.5 at New York Jets:

The Seattle Seahawks are 1.5-point favorites against the New York Jets, and our model projects a decisive 6-point victory for Seattle. The Jets' poor offense (+2.5) and Geno Smith’s passing ability (+1.9) strongly favor the Seahawks. While the Jets’ pass coverage is a slight concern (-2), it’s not enough to impact the model’s confidence in Seattle covering the spread.

The Arizona Cardinals are 4-point underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings, but our model projects a narrow 1-point win for Arizona. The Vikings’ poor pass defense (+1.7) and the Cardinals’ offensive talent (+1.7) support Arizona. While Darnold’s passing ability is a slight negative factor (-1.4), the model strongly favors the Cardinals to cover and potentially win outright.

The New Orleans Saints are 2-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams, but our model sees them winning by 1.5 points. The Rams’ pass defense (+3) and their banged-up offense (+2.6) push the model toward the Saints. However, the Saints’ poor pass defense (-2.6) is a concern, but it doesn’t outweigh the model’s confidence in New Orleans covering and potentially winning outright.

The Chicago Bears are 10.5-point underdogs against the Detroit Lions, and our model projects a closer game, with the Lions winning by just 5 points. The Lions’ average pass defense (+1.9) and the Bears’ offensive talent (+0.5) favor Chicago to keep it close. The Lions’ offensive talent (-2.5) further narrows the margin, making the Bears a solid pick to cover the large spread.

The Miami Dolphins are 3.5-point underdogs against the Green Bay Packers, but our model projects a pick-em game. The Packers’ average pass defense (+1.4) and the Dolphins’ offensive talent (+1) give Miami an edge. However, the Dolphins’ poor pass defense (-2.9) tempers the model’s confidence slightly, but Miami remains a strong pick to cover.

The Houston Texans are 5-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and our model projects an 8-point win for Houston. Trevor Lawrence’s poor passing ability (+4) and the Jaguars’ poor offensive talent (+2.4) heavily favor the Texans. Although Houston’s average pass defense (-0.9) is a slight negative, it’s not enough to sway the model’s confidence in the Texans covering the spread.