Week 12

A  2-2 week leaves the model with an overall record of 31-23 against the spread.  We had two heartbreakers including a rough late fumble in the Jets game when it was clear the Patriots would just be in clock eating time and wild man Dan Campbell going for it on 4th down everywhere except in the 4th quarter.  With that said looking for those 50/50 games to propel another huge week.  Here's this week's picks:

 Bears -3 vs. Steelers
Books have CHI -3; our model makes it Bears -7. Drivers: Rudolph’s passing (+2) and Pittsburgh’s struggling offense (+1.5) tilt this to Chicago, with the Bears’ shaky secondary (-1.5) the main counter. ~4 points of value. Play: Bears -3.

Packers -6.5 vs. Vikings
Market is GB -6.5; model GB -11. Case: McCarthy’s poor road passing (+4) and MIN’s average OL (+1.5) help GB; Packers’ banged-up offense (-1.5) trims it. ~4.5 points of value. Play: Packers -6.5.

Rams -6.5 vs. Buccaneers
Books show LAR -6.5; model LAR -8.5. Drivers: Rams’ explosive offense (+2) and above-average defense (+1.5); counter is Mayfield’s passing (-1). ~2 points of value. Play: Rams -6.5.

Jets +14 at Ravens
Line is NYJ +14; model has Jets +10.  Not loving having to bet on the Jets for a second week straight, but the model has no feelings. Drivers: Ravens’ average pass blocking (+0.5), weak pass rush (+0.5), and down-tick in overall offensive talent (-2) keep this closer than the number. ~4 points of value. Play: Jets +14 (OK down to +13.5).