Week 11 Recap

For the second time this year we didn't have a winning week, but managed a .500 record going 3-3 by going 3-2 against the spread and 0-1 in the Moneyline picks.  We are now 47-33-1 on the year with 39-28-1 against the spread and 8-5 in our Moneyline and Adjusted Line picks.  

With that said let's get into this week's picks!

The San Francisco 49ers are 2-point underdogs against the Green Bay Packers, but our model projects a convincing 6.6-point win for the 49ers. Brock Purdy’s passing ability (+2.7) and the 49ers’ strong offensive talent (+2.6) drive this pick. Although the 49ers' pass coverage is a minor concern (-0.9), the model strongly favors San Francisco to cover and win outright.

The Philadelphia Eagles are 3-point favorites against the Los Angeles Rams, and our model projects an 11.5-point victory for the Eagles. Philadelphia’s offensive talent (+2.4) and the Rams’ offensive talent (+1.7) contribute to this large projected margin. While the Rams’ run blocking (-0.1) slightly offsets the Eagles’ advantage, the model strongly supports Philadelphia to dominate and cover the spread.

The Houston Texans are 7.5-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans, and our model predicts an 11-point victory for Houston. Will Levis’ passing struggles (+3.9) and the Titans’ offensive inefficiencies (+3.9) heavily favor the Texans. Although Houston’s pass coverage is a small negative (-2.2), the model sees the Texans as strong favorites to cover.

The Chicago Bears are 3.5-point underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings, and our model projects a narrow 0.5-point win for Minnesota. The Vikings’ pass coverage (+1.5) and Caleb’s running ability (+0.2) favor Minnesota slightly. However, Darnold’s passing struggles (-1.7) provide a case for the Bears to cover the spread in what is expected to be a very close game.

The New York Giants are 5.5-point underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but our model sees them keeping it close, projecting a 0.8-point win for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers’ beat-up offense (+2.4) and their pass coverage struggles leave an opening for New York. However, Devito’s passing issues (-2.8) slightly temper the model’s confidence in the Giants covering the spread.

The Washington Commanders are 10-point favorites against the Dallas Cowboys, and our model projects a commanding 12.5-point win for Washington. Rush’s strong passing ability (+4.5) and the Cowboys’ offensive talent (+2.7) provide some resistance. However, the Commanders’ pass coverage struggles (-1.6) aren’t enough to undermine the model’s confidence in Washington covering the large spread.