Week 8 Recap

A great week in which a Hail Mary prevented it from being awesome as we went 5-1 on the week with the heartbreaking Chicago Bears loss preventing the elusive perfect week.  We are now 36-25 on the year with 29-22 against the spread and 7-3 in our Moneyline and Adjusted Line picks.  Also, for those of you who didn't heed the warning on the Cardinals - Dolphins game you got another victory last week as Tua played and the pick still held so cheers to you!

With that said let's get into this week's picks!

The Cleveland Browns are 2-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers, but our model projects them to win by 2 points. The Chargers’ poor offensive talent (+3.1) and the Browns' strong pass rush (+0.6) are key factors. On the other hand, Herbert’s struggles in this matchup impact the Chargers negatively by -2.0 points.

The Chicago Bears are 1-point underdogs against the Arizona Cardinals, but our model sees the Bears winning by 1.7 points. The Bears’ offensive talent (+2.0) and their strong secondary (+2.0) lead the model to favor Chicago. While Kyler Murray’s passing ability is a challenge for the Bears (-1.2), the model still predicts a narrow victory for Chicago.  Murray is my least favorite QB to project and the Bears did cost us the perfect week last week, but the model has no feelings, so we roll with it.

The New York Jets are 1-point favorites against the Houston Texans, and the model projects a solid 6-point win for the Jets. The Texans’ banged-up offense (+2.0) and the Jets’ defense (+1.5) are significant drivers. However, Stroud’s passing struggles (-2.3) give the Jets an added advantage in this matchup.  

The Atlanta Falcons are 2.5-point favorites against the Dallas Cowboys, and our model projects them to win by 5.9 points. The Cowboys’ banged-up secondary (+2.8) and overall defensive struggles (+1.2) work in favor of the Falcons. Prescott’s passing issues (-1.9) are a challenge for the Cowboys, giving the model confidence in Atlanta covering the spread.

The Baltimore Ravens are 9-point favorites against the Denver Broncos, and our model projects them to win comfortably by 11.5 points. Denver’s poor passing ability on the road (+3.3) and Lamar Jackson’s strong passing performance (+1.2) are key drivers, while a minor factor against Baltimore is their offensive talent (-0.5), which doesn’t significantly affect the outcome.

The Detroit Lions are 3.5-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers, and our model projects a 4.8-point victory for Detroit. The Lions’ offensive talent (+2.8) and Goff’s passing ability (+2.4) push the model in favor of Detroit. Although the Lions’ secondary is a concern (-2.5), it isn’t enough to offset the overall advantage.  Usually, this game is borderline too close to bet on with the model difference being only 1.3 points, but since Love is a bit banged up I included it in this week's picks.

The Cincinnati Bengals are 7.5-point favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders, and the model projects them to win by 9.1 points. The Raiders’ poor secondary (+3.2) and Joe Burrow’s passing ability (+3.0) are major factors favoring Cincinnati. Although the Bengals’ own secondary issues are factored in (-1.8), the model still strongly favors Cincinnati to cover the spread.