Our first losing week of the year going 2-4 leaves the model with an overall record of 25-19. Only two picks currently for the week still leaves a route to get back on track!
Lions -8.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Books list Vikings +8.5 on the road; our model makes it Lions -12. Drivers: Minnesota’s struggling QBs (+3.5 toward DET) and Detroit’s defense (+1). Counter: the Vikings’ WR talent (-0.5). About 3.5 points of value to Detroit. Play: Lions -8.5.
Colts -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Market has Colts -3; our model is Colts -6. Case: Indy’s high-powered offense (+2) and Jones’s passing this year (+1) push it Colts’ way; the Colts’ shaky secondary (-1) is the offset. Roughly 3 points of value. Play: Colts -3.
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