Season Win Totals

The NFL is back, and so am I with another updated model which performed 10% better than last year's model thanks to a little bit more data, a shiny new feature, and a revamped algorithm.

Currently, my favorite Over is the Denver Broncos Over 9.5. My model puts them as an 11–13 win team, which gives plenty of room to clear 10 wins even with a little bad luck. Sean Payton supposedly loves this team and so does the model.  Who am I to disagree with both of them?

My favorite Under is the Dallas Cowboys Under 7.5. The model is harsh here—3–6 wins—so even a good-case bounce only lands around the number. That’s the kind of gap I want when I’m fading a team.  Also, this was before Parsons was traded to the Green Bay Packers so I'm psyched I locked that bet in before the trade.  For reference, the Cowboys went from +9 predicted spread against the Eagles to +10 so a full point in a single game.  That loss hurts.

Favorite bet of the year: Broncos Over 9.5 and Cowboys Under 7.5.

Falcons +2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Atlanta is a 2.5-point home dog, but our model makes it essentially Falcons -1 (Atlanta by 1). The case leans on the Falcons’ overall offensive skill (+1.6) and Tampa Bay’s weak secondary (+0.5). Baker Mayfield’s passing ability (-1.5) is the counterweight, but not enough to flip the edge. We like Atlanta to cover and likely to win outright.

Jaguars -3 vs. Carolina Panthers:
Vegas has Jacksonville -3; our model pushes harder at Jags -7. The Panthers’ bad defense (-2.5 for CAR) and Jacksonville’s pass defense relative to Carolina’s WRs (+1.0) tilt this toward the Jags. Bryce Young’s passing (-1.0) doesn’t help the Panthers’ cause. Jacksonville to cover.

Broncos -7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans:
Denver is -7.5, and the model makes it Broncos -10.5. A strong secondary (+1.5) and overall defense (+1.5) drive the projection; a modestly poor run game (-0.25) is the only ding. With that gap from the number, Denver is a clear cover lean.

Lions +2.5 at Green Bay Packers:
Detroit is +2.5 on the road, but our model has Lions -0.5 (slight DET edge). Detroit’s overall offensive talent (+1.5) and Goff’s passing (+1.0) carry the case, while the Packers’ overall offensive talent (-1.0) keeps it tight. Take the points with Detroit and sprinkle the ML.

Chargers +3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs:
Los Angeles is +3.5 at home, and the model sees a near pick ’em (slight Chargers edge around ±0.5). Justin Herbert’s passing (+1.5) and the Chargers’ offensive talent (+0.5) support LAC; Mahomes on the road (-1.5) pulls KC back toward even. Chargers to cover, with upset equity.