Week 6

Officially a solid 4-2 week bringing our record to 15-10.  Again, this week we had some updates on our picks given the shifting lines and constantly updating injury situations.  With that said here are this week's picks:  

 Colts -5.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Books: Colts -5.5; model: Colts -8.5. Drivers: Indy’s offensive talent (+2), Kyler Murray’s inconsistency (+1), and Arizona’s Jones with inconsistent passing (-0.5). ~3 points of value to Indianapolis. Play: Colts -5.5.

Panthers +3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Books: Panthers +3.5; model: Panthers +0.5. Edges: Dallas’s weak secondary (+1.5) and banged-up O-line (+1.0); counter is Dak’s passing (-1.5). ~3 points of value to Carolina. Play: Panthers +3.5.

Browns +5.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Books: Browns +5.5; model: Browns +1. Case: Pittsburgh’s beat-up secondary (+2) and opposing QB passing vs. CLE’s defense (+1.5) help, but Cleveland’s lack of offensive talent (-2) trims it. Still ~6.5 points of value. Play: Browns +5.5.

Lions +1.5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Market: Lions +1.5; model: Lions -2. Drivers: Detroit offensive talent (+1.5) and defense (+0.5); counter is KC’s solid pass defense (-1). ~3.5 points of value toward Detroit. Play: Lions +1.5; consider ML.

Seattle Seahawks +1.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars Books have JAX -1.5; our model actually has the Seahawks-2. Drivers: Darnold’s passing (+2.5) and the Seahawks overall offensive talent (+.5) partially offset by Seattle’s banged-up secondary (-1). Small but playable edge. Lean: Seahawks +1.5.

Jets +7.5 vs Denver Broncos (In London)
Market sets DEN -7.5; our model trims it to DEN -2.5. Drivers: Nix’s subpar passing (+2 for NYJ) and the Jets’ offensive talent (+1), with New York’s struggling secondary (-1.5) as the counter. ~5 points of value to the dog.  Do I love this play considering how the Jets have been turning the ball over inside the red zone every week (NO!), but the model has way less feelings than myself and has no issue possibly receiving more punishment from the Jets. Play: Jets +7.5.