Week 15

A difficult week going 1-3 leaves the model with an overall record of 38-27-1 against the spread (58.5%).  Definitely will need a bounce back week for any chance at ending the season over 60%.  With that said here are this week's picks!

 Falcons +4.5 at Buccaneers
Books: ATL +4.5; model: ATL -0.5 (Falcons by 0.5).
Why it pops: Bucs’ banged-up offense (+1.5) and a subpar secondary (+1) tilt this toward Atlanta; Falcons’ thin WR room (-0.5) is the give-back. ~5 points of value. Play: Falcons +4.5.

Patriots +1.5 vs. Bills
Books: NE +1.5; model: NE -3 (Pats by 3).
Why it pops: Maye’s passing (+2) plus a small bump for overall offensive talent (+0.5) outweighs a shaky Pats secondary (-1.5). ~4.5 points of value. Play: Patriots +1.5.

Panthers -2.5 at Saints
Books: CAR -2.5 (NO +2.5); model: CAR by ~1.
Why it pops: Bryce Young’s steady road form this year (+2.5) and a middling Panthers defense (+1) face a Saints attack lacking top-end juice (-2). Edge is smaller but still positive. ~1.5–2 points of value. Play: Panthers -2.5.

Bears -7 vs. Browns
Books: CHI -7; model: CHI -8.
Why it pops: Shedeur’s current passing struggles (+2.5) and Cleveland’s sputtering offense (+2.5) drive the edge; Chicago’s banged-up secondary (-1.5) is the risk. ~1 point of value. Play: Bears -7 or better.

Packers -1.5 at Broncos
Books: GB -1.5; model: GB -3.5.
Why it pops: Love’s passing uptick (+3) plus a tough Green Bay secondary (+1) vs. Nix’s modest home passing (-0.5). ~2 points of value. Play: Packers -1.5.

Steelers -3 vs. Dolphins
Books: PIT -3; model: PIT -5.5.
Why it pops: Miami’s thin secondary (+1.5) and banged-up skill group (+1) meet a limited Steelers offense (-1), but the matchup still favors Pittsburgh. ~2.5 points of value. Play: Steelers -3.