Week 15 Recap

Another tough week going 1-3, but luckily it looks like back-up QBs to the rescue as the model feasts off of poor QB play.  The model is now 53-45-1 on the year with 45-38-1 against the spread and 8-7 in our Moneyline and Adjusted Line picks.  With that said here are this week's picks:

The Atlanta Falcons are 4.5-point favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders, and our model projects a dominant 13.5-point victory for Atlanta. Desmond Ridder’s poor passing ability (+2.6) and the Raiders’ lack of offensive weapons (+2.6) give the Falcons a significant edge. Although the Falcons’ pass coverage is a slight concern (-1), the model strongly supports Atlanta to cover comfortably.

The Los Angeles Chargers are 2.5-point favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and our model projects a 6-point victory for the Chargers. Justin Herbert’s passing ability (+1.8) and the Chargers’ pass coverage (+1.5) are key factors in their favor. Baker Mayfield’s passing (-0.7) drops the model's confidence a bit, but it still sees the Chargers covering the spread.

The Philadelphia Eagles are 4.5-point favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and our model predicts a 7.5-point win for Philadelphia. The Eagles’ strong pass defense (+2.2) and their offensive talent (+1.6) are major contributors to their advantage. Wilson’s passing success this year (-1.2) reduces the confidence a bit.

The Green Bay Packers are 3-point favorites against the Seattle Seahawks, and our model projects a 6-point win for the Packers. Seattle’s below-average offensive pass protection (+2.2) and Jordan Love’s passing ability (+1.2) favor Green Bay. While Geno Smith’s passing ability (-1) is a slight concern the Packers are well-positioned to cover.

The New York Jets are 3.5-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and our model projects a 6.5-point win for the Jets. Mac Jones’ passing struggles (+4.3) and the Jaguars’ poor offensive talent (+1.9) favor New York. While the Jets’ own offensive limitations (-0.9) are noted, the model remains confident in their ability to cover the spread.