Week 7

A 3-3 week gives us an overall record of 18-13.  Hoping that serves as a low point for the model as we have another 7 games where the model sees some value relative to the Vegas line Spreads.

 Bengals +5.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Market has Cincinnati +5.5; our model makes it Bengals +1 (CIN by a point). Drivers: opponent QB’s average road passing (+2) and Pittsburgh’s below-average offensive talent (+1.5); counter is Cincinnati QB form (-1.5). ~6.5 points of value. Play: Bengals +5.5.

Cowboys +2.5 vs. Washington Commanders
Books list Dallas +2.5 at home; model is Cowboys -1.5. Edges: Dak’s passing (+1.5) and Washington’s shaky pass coverage (+1.5) vs. Dallas’s own coverage (-1.5). ~4 points of value. Play: Cowboys +2.5.

Giants +7 at Denver Broncos
Line is NYG +7; model trims it to Giants +4. Leans: Denver’s overall offensive talent (+1.5) is offset by Nix’s struggling passing (+1 toward NYG) while Giants’ QB form (-1) is the counter. ~3 points of value. Play: Giants +7.

Colts +1.5 at Los Angeles Chargers
Market shows IND +1.5; model has Colts -2. Case: Chargers’ banged-up offense (+2 for IND) and Colts offensive talent (+1.5) vs. Herbert’s passing (-1.5). ~3.5 points of value. Play: Colts +1.5; consider ML.

Raiders +11.5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Books hang LV +11.5; model is Raiders +8.5. Drivers: Raiders’ offensive (+0.5) and defensive (+0.5) nudges, plus a downgrade to Mahomes’ passing (-4). ~3 points of cushion. Play: Raiders +11.5.

Eagles -2.5 at Minnesota Vikings
Line: PHI -2.5; model: Eagles -6. Factors: Vikings’ banged-up offense (+2.5 for PHI) and Wentz’s struggles (+2) vs. Philly’s banged-up secondary (-1.5). ~3.5 points of value. Play: Eagles -2.5.

 Saints +5.5 at Chicago Bears
Books have New Orleans +5.5 on the road; our model is tighter at Saints +2.5. Drivers: Chicago’s below-average offense (+2) and a banged-up secondary (+1.2) tilt toward NO, while the Saints’ offense tends to dip on the road (-2.5). Roughly 3 points of value. Play: Saints +5.5.