Week 6 Recap

A tough week for our model going 2-4 bringing us to 26-21 on the year with 21-18 against the spread and 5-3 in our Moneyline and Adjusted Line picks.  This was an odd week overall as the Favorites went a crazy 11-3 on the week including 6x 10+ point blow-outs by the favorites. 

          With that said I'm excited to announce a new feature where I will be providing the top two reasons why the Model selected a specific spread and also the top reason going against the spread.  For instance in the Cardinals vs Chargers game the model cites the Charger's having poor overall offensive talent being worth 2.8 points for the Cardinals.  Considering the low scoring nature of the Charger's this season this reason lines up.  Now the largest negative factor in that game is Justin Herbert being a good passer which the model says hurts the Cardinals and costs them 1.8 points in their projected spread against the Chargers.  Let me know what you guys think about the new feature.

 Cardinals +2.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers:

The Arizona Cardinals are 2.5-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers, but our model predicts a close game with the Cardinals winning by 2.1 points. The Chargers' poor offensive talent (+2.8) and Murray's passing ability (+1.7) give the Cardinals a noticeable edge. Herbert's passing ability is factored in as it counts as -1.8 towards the Cardinal's prediction for the game. 

The Los Angeles Rams are 5.5-point favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders, and our model projects them to win by 10 points. The Raiders' poor pass defense (+3.3) and poor overall offense (+2.1) are the two largest factors driving the Rams being heavy favorites.  The largest factor against the Rams according to the model is their poor pass defense which costs them -2.6. Overall, the model strongly favors the Rams to cover.

The Buffalo Bills are 8.5-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans, and our model projects a dominant 12-point victory for Buffalo. Levis' passing struggles (+3.8) and the Bills' pass defense (+1.6) are key drivers here. The largest factor against the Bills is their overall defense which is only deducting 0.3 from the projected win of the Bills which illustrates just how much the model likes the Bills at home against the Titans.

The New York Jets are 1.5-point favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the model predicts a 4.6-point victory for the Jets. Probably the most interesting top factor for a team this week was the Jet's benefiting from Close Visitor travel distance reducing the homefield advantage (+2.2).  The second highest factor in favor of the Jet's was Rodgers' pocket presence and scrambling ability (+1).  The largest negative factor towards the Jet's was Fields' scrambling (-0.4).

The Baltimore Ravens are 3.5-point favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and our model projects them to win by 5.8 points. Lamar Jackson's passing ability (+1.9) and Tampa's defense (+1.3) are the two top drivers of this spread in the Raven's favor, but Baker Mayfield's passing strength (-1.5) reduced the Raven's advantage in the model's eyes. 

The Minnesota Vikings are 1.5-point favorites against the Detroit Lions, and our model predicts a 3.8-point victory for Minnesota. The Lions' pass defense (+2.8) mixed with the Vikings' offensive talent (+1.5) is what's driving the Viking's edge. The Lions' passing offense (-2.6) is a large factor in the Viking's only being favored by the model by 3.8 points.

The Denver Broncos are 1-point underdogs against the New Orleans Saints, but our model sees this as a tight contest, projecting a 0.9-point win for Denver. Since making the selections this has actually shifted to Broncos -1.5 so I apologize for not publishing this quick enough to benefit you readers.