Week 14

Another soldi week going 3-1 leaving the model with an overall record of 37-24-1 against the spread!  The model is now right over 60% on the year against the spread which is our goal.  Luckily for us in order to achieve the goal the model will have to continue to hit at a 60% rate the rest of the year.  With that said here are this week's picks!

 Commanders -1.5 at Vikings
Books have WAS -1.5; our model makes it Commanders -5.5. Drivers: Vikings’ poor QB play (-3.5) and a banged-up OL (-1) outweigh a slight boost from Washington’s weaker secondary (+1.5). About 4 points of value. Play: Commanders -1.5

Bears +6.5 at Packers
Market lists CHI +6.5; we make it Bears +3. Drivers: Chicago’s solid offense (+1) and Green Bay’s banged-up offense (+1) combine with Love’s shaky passing (-2.5). Roughly 3.5 points of value. Play: Bears +6.5

Cowboys +3 at Lions
Books show DAL +3; model has Cowboys +0.5. Case: Prescott’s passing (+2.5) and Detroit’s banged-up secondary (+1) help Dallas; the counter is the Cowboys’ own shaky secondary (-1.5). Around 2.5 points of value. Play: Cowboys +3

Chargers +3 vs. Eagles
Line is LAC +3; model makes it Chargers +0.5. Drivers: Herbert’s passing (+2.5) and Philly’s shaky secondary this year (+1.5), offset by the Chargers’ banged-up OL (-2.5). About 2.5 points of value. Play: Chargers +3