Week 13 Recap

A decent week with our spread picks going 3-3, but 0-2 in our Moneyline brought us to 3-5 overall on the week.  The model is now 52-42-1 on the year with 44-35-1 against the spread and 8-7 in our Moneyline and Adjusted Line picks.  We have another game which is pending game-time players in the Bears vs 49ers which is a Bears if Trent Williams and Nick Bosa aren't playing and a stay-away otherwise.  Also, although the Falcons is not saying take the Moneyline as they are projected to cover, but lose we are taking it given the +200 odds and the relative coin flip chance the model predicts.

With that said let's get into this week's picks!

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 7-point favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders, and our model projects a dominant 14-point victory for Tampa Bay. Aidan O'Connell's poor passing ability (+4.4) and the Raiders' weak pass coverage (+4.2) are key drivers behind the Buccaneers’ edge. Although the Bucs’ own pass coverage is a minor negative (-2), the model strongly favors Tampa Bay to cover the spread with ease.

The Atlanta Falcons are 6-point underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings, but our model sees this game being much closer, projecting a 0.5-point win for Atlanta. The Vikings’ poor pass defense (+1.2) and Cousins' inconsistent passing ability (+0.5) favor the Falcons. However, Darnold’s passing struggles (-1.3) slightly temper the model’s confidence in an outright win for Atlanta, but they remain a strong pick to cover.

The New Orleans Saints are 5-point favorites against the New York Giants, and our model projects a decisive 8.5-point win for the Saints. Drew Lock’s poor passing ability (+4) and the Giants' overall lackluster offensive talent (+3) are key reasons for the Saints’ advantage. While New Orleans’ own poor pass coverage (-3) is noted, the model remains confident in their ability to cover the spread.

The Chicago Bears are 3.5-point underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers, but this pick hinges on both Bosa and Williams being unavailable. If they’re out, our model projects a 0.5-point loss for the Bears. The banged-up 49ers’ offense (+2.9) and the Bears’ solid pass defense (+2) are key factors. Purdy’s passing ability (-3) is a mitigating factor, but model still likes the Bears to cover the spread.