Week 4 Recap

Our first losing week of the year and hopefully our last as we went 3-5 with a 2-4 record in our spread picks and 1-1 in our Money and Adjusted Line picks. We are now 20-13 on the year with 15-12 against the spread and 5-1 in our Moneyline and Adjusted Line picks.  Although, we had some bad beats including losing two games where the opposing team through for less than 100 yards there was one nice break you can look at below.  As Koo kicked a 58 yarder to secure the victory for the Falcons and cover the 1.5 point spread!

With all that said let's get down to this week's picks and hope to continue a solid year from the model!

Colts +2.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars:

The Indianapolis Colts are slight 2.5-point underdogs against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but our model disagrees with Vegas, projecting a 3.3-point win for the Colts. The old model disagreed, favoring the Jaguars by 4.7-point edge over the Colts. This projection was made with Joe Flacco as the QB for the Indianapolis Colts.  

The Atlanta Falcons are favored by 2 points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and our model projects an even bigger margin, predicting a 5.4-point win for Atlanta.  The old model had them winning by only 1.25 points, but the current projection shows much more confidence. Tampa Bay has been hit or miss so far this season with some big wins against the Eagles and Lions, but an odd loss against the Broncos. 

The Baltimore Ravens are 2.5-point favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals, and our model projects an even larger margin of victory, predicting a 4.9-point win for the Ravens. Cincinnati has been struggling with injuries especially along their defensive front.  Derrick Henry and the Ravens will look to take advantage of that with the model believing that will drive them to a comfortable victory.

The Buffalo Bills are 1-point underdogs against the Houston Texans, and our model projects a surprising 4.5-point win for the Bills. The model thinks the market is overreacting to the beating the Bills took last week.

The Washington Commanders are 3-point favorites against the Cleveland Browns, and our model expects an even more decisive win, projecting a 5.3-point victory. The Browns' defense is their strong point, but their offensive struggles, particularly at quarterback, are well-documented. The old model had the Browns losing by only 1.7 points, so the updated projection is more confident in Washington's ability to take control of this game, especially at home.

The Seattle Seahawks are favored by 6 points against the New York Giants, and our model is slightly more cautious, predicting the Giants to lose by just 1.7 points. The old model was slightly less optimistic for New York, predicting a loss by 2.3 points. The Giants' offense has been struggling, but Seattle has had moments of inconsistency as well. The model suggests the Seahawks should win, but it may be a closer contest than the spread indicates.