Week 5

Looking for 3-1 week tonight as the Jets vs Dolphins game is trying to give us a decisive victory for the weekend.  Our current record sits at 11-7 with that one game left his weekend.  Again, given the injury updates that occur throughout the week I will revisit lines and post again if any major news provides an opportunity according to the model.  With that said here are this week's picks:  

 Panthers +1.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Books have Carolina +1.5 at home; our model makes it Panthers -2. Drivers: Miami’s shaky offensive line (+2.5 for CAR) and a solid Panthers secondary (+0.5). Counter: Tua’s passing form (-1.5). Roughly 3.5 points of value. Play: Panthers +1.5.

Jets +2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Market lists Jets +2.5; we make it Jets -1. Edges: Dallas’s shaky offensive line (+1.5 toward NYJ) and vulnerable pass coverage (+1.0), with Dak’s passing (-1.0) trimming Dallas. About 3.5 points of value to the Jets. Play: Jets +2.5.

Raiders +6.5 at Indianapolis Colts
Books show Raiders +6.5; our model a little more conservative with Raiders +1 (LV losing by a point). Case: Smith’s passing (+1.5) against Indy’s weak secondary (+1.5). Counterweight: Raiders’ shaky secondary (-1.5). Net ~5.5 points of value. Play: Raiders +6.5.

Patriots +8.5 at Buffalo Bills
Line is Patriots +8.5; model has Patriots +5.5 (Patriots losing by 5.5 in our numbers). Drivers: Bills’ weak secondary (+1.5 for NE) and a shaky overall defense (+0.5), with Allen’s passing (-1.5) as the counter. Play: Patriots +8.5.

Jaguars +3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Books hang JAX +3.5; our model has JAX +0.5. Drivers: Trevor Lawrence’s passing (+1) and the Jags’ defense (+1). Counter: a downgrade to Mahomes’ current passing form (-2). ~3 points of value. Play: Jaguars +3.5.

Browns +4.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Market is CLE +4.5 in London, model is CLE +1.5. Case: Wentz’s poor passing (+2) and Cleveland’s pass rush (+1) tilt this toward the Browns, with the Vikings’ offensive talent (-1.5) as the counter. ~6 points of value. Play: Browns +4.5.