Week 18 Recap

Solid end to the regular season going 3-1 including 3-0 in our Spread picks!  Final regular season record ends at 65-55-1 overall including a 57-45-1 record against the spread.  With that said here are the picks for Wildcard weekend:

The Los Angeles Chargers are 2.5-point favorites against the Houston Texans, and our model projects a 5.5-point win for the Chargers. Justin Herbert’s passing ability (+2.2) and the Texans’ banged-up offense (+2.0) favor Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Stroud’s passing ability (-1.5) could prevent the Charger's from covering, but even with that factored in the model still likes the Chargers covering the spread.

The Denver Broncos are 9.5-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills, but our model projects a 3.5-point win for Denver. The Bills’ average pass defense (+1.7) and the Broncos’ solid pass defense (+0.7) give Denver an edge to keep the game competitive. While Josh Allen’s passing ability (-2) is noted, the model supports the Broncos to cover the large spread.

The Philadelphia Eagles are 5.5-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers, and our model projects an 8.5-point win for the Eagles. Philadelphia’s offensive talent (+2.7) and pass defense (+2.4) make them strong favorites. The Packers’ pass defense struggles (-0.8) further tilt the scales in the Eagles’ favor, making them a confident pick to cover.