Week 9 Recap

Another solid week for the model as it went 5-3 on the week by going 5-2 against the spread and 0-1 in the Moneyline picks.  We are now 41-28 on the year with 34-24 against the spread and 7-4 in our Moneyline and Adjusted Line picks.  Also, considering it's half-way through the season I made updates to the individual player projections to reflect those player's either improved or degraded performance.

With that said let's get into this week's picks!

 Dolphins +2.5 at Los Angeles Rams:

The Miami Dolphins are 2.5-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams, but our model favors them, projecting a 2.4-point win for Miami. The Dolphins' overall offensive talent (+2.2) and Tua Tagovailoa’s passing ability (+2) give Miami a significant edge. Meanwhile, Stafford's passing ability is a counterpoint in favor of the Rams' as it drops the Dolphin's projected win total by 1.5 points. The model is confident in the Dolphins’ ability to cover and win outright.

The New York Jets are 1-point underdogs against the Arizona Cardinals, but our model projects a solid 3.66-point victory for the Jets. The Cardinals’ poor defensive coverage (+1.9) and overall defensive struggles (+1.5) push the model in favor of New York. While the Cardinals’ offensive talent is a factor (-2.3), the model strongly favors the Jets to cover the spread.

The San Francisco 49ers are 5.5-point favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and our model projects a decisive 10.2-point win for the 49ers. Tampa’s beat-up offensive talent (+2.6) and San Francisco's strong offensive talent (+2.4) support this projection. Baker Mayfield’s passing talent (-1.2) is a mitigating factor for the model, but even with that the model gives the 49ers a strong chance to cover.

The Los Angeles Chargers are 7.5-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans, and our model projects them to win by 9.5 points. Rudolph’s passing struggles on the road (-3.7) and the Titans' poor pass coverage (-2.8) drive this pick in favor of the Chargers. Although the Chargers’ offensive talent isn’t a major factor (-0.8), the model still sees them as solid favorites to cover.

The Detroit Lions are 3-point favorites against the Houston Texans, and our model projects them to win by 5.9 points. The Lions' overall offensive talent (+2.6) and Jared Goff’s passing ability (+2.4) provide Detroit with a clear advantage. Despite a minor concern with the Texans' pass defense (-1.4), the model strongly favors Detroit to cover the spread.