Week 10

Another tough week at 0-2 leaves the model with an overall record of 25-21.  A tough 2 week stretch, but it feels like a lot of bad breaks as the underlying team performance (not score but more who wins each snap) hasn't aligned with the outcomes.  This should smooth out over the long term so looking for that to start this week! 

 Patriots +2.5 at Buccaneers
Market: TB -2.5 | Model: NE -2
Injuries to Tampa’s offense (+2 to NE) plus Drake Maye’s passing (+1.5) swing this our way, while Mayfield’s current form (-1) is a risk to the Patriots' line. ~4.5 points of value. Play: Patriots +2.5; 

ML sprinkle.

Colts -5.5 vs. Falcons
Market: IND -5.5 | Model: IND -9
Edge comes from Penix’s inconsistency (+2 for IND) and the Colts’ high-powered offense (+1.5). Their shaky secondary (-1.5) is the caution (…probably why they traded for Sauce). Play: Colts -5.5.

Ravens -3.5 at Vikings
Market: BAL -3.5 | Model: BAL -6
McCarthy’s up-and-down passing (+2 for BAL) plus Lamar’s passing (+1.5) create separation; Baltimore’s shaky defense (-1) is the give-back. Play: Ravens -3.5.

Bears -3.5 vs. Giants
Market: CHI -3.5 | Model: CHI -5.5
Giants’ banged-up offense (+2 for CHI) and Bears’ offensive talent (+1) point to Chicago; a banged-up Bears secondary (-1.5) narrows it slightly. Play: Bears -3.5.