An average week with some bad breaks including Jalen Hurts getting injured in the first quarter on the Eagle's drive to go up 14-0 left us 3-3 on the weekend bringing our record up to 60-49-1 overall including a 52-42-1 record against the spread. The model is looking to end strong by targeting a lot of underdogs on the road this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers are 4.5-point favorites against the New England Patriots, and our model projects a dominant 14.5-point win for the Chargers. The Patriots' poor offensive talent (+4.6) and Justin Herbert’s strong passing ability (+2.5) favor Los Angeles significantly. Maye’s scrambling ability (-1.2) is a slight counterpoint, but the model confidently supports the Chargers to cover.
The Denver Broncos are 3.5-point underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals, but our model projects a 5-point win for Denver. The Broncos’ strong pass defense (+1.5) and the Bengals’ poor pass coverage (+1.4) tilt the game in Denver’s favor. While Joe Burrow’s passing ability (-2.3) is a concern, the Broncos are well-positioned to cover and win outright.
The Arizona Cardinals are 6-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams, but our model predicts a narrow 0.5-point win for the Rams. The Rams’ pass defense (+1.7) and Murray’s passing ability (+0.8) favor the Cardinals, but the Rams’ offensive talent (-1.8) are concerns to Arizona covering the spread.
The Atlanta Falcons are 4-point underdogs against the Washington Commanders, but our model projects a 2.5-point win for the Falcons. Atlanta’s offensive talent (+2.5) and Washington’s pass defense (+1.3) favor the Falcons. Although Daniel’s passing ability (-2) is a challenge, the model strongly supports Atlanta to cover.
The New York Jets are 10.5-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills, but our model projects a 4-point loss for New York. The Bills’ average pass defense (+1.8) and overall defensive talent (+1) are points in the Jet's favor, but Allen’s passing ability (-1.5) is a concern for the Jets chance to cover the large spread.
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