Week 8

A very solid 5-2 week gives us an overall record of 23-15.  Hoping to keep that momentum going with another 5 picks this week!

Mid-Week Update:  Started the week off 1-0 so far with a nice stress free win in the Chargers-Vikings game.  Updating because the Texans and 49ers have had some developments so adding the 49ers +1.5 to our picks for 6 total on the week (5 more left).

 Bears +6.5 at Baltimore Ravens
Books: Bears +6.5; our model has Bears +0.5 (CHI by a whisker). Drivers: Baltimore’s poor pass coverage (+1) and shaky overall defense (+1) help Chicago, while Lamar’s passing (-1.5) trims the Bears’ edge. ~6 points of value. Play: Bears +6.5.

Saints +6.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Market: Saints +6.5 at home; model: Saints +1 (near pick’em, slight NO lean). Case: Bucs’ injuries on offense (+2) and subpar secondary (+1) tilt toward New Orleans; Mayfield’s passing (-2) is the counter. ~5.5 points of value. Play: Saints +6.5.

Packers -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: GB -3; model: GB -6. Boosts: Rodgers’ passing (+2) and Pittsburgh’s merely average offensive talent (+1.5) keep the Steelers capped; counter is Green Bay’s underperforming offensive talent (-1.5). ~3 points of value. Play: Packers -3.

Chargers -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Books: LAC -3; model: LAC -7. Drivers: Wentz’s poor passing (+2.5 toward LAC) and Herbert’s passing (+1.5) vs. the Chargers’ banged-up OL (-2). ~4 points of value. Play: Chargers -3.

Panthers +7.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Market: CAR +7.5; model: CAR +3.5 (Panthers by 3.5 in our numbers). Factors: visitor travel burden on BUF (+1.5 for CAR) and Carolina’s solid receivers (+0.5); counter is Josh Allen’s passing (-1.5). ~4 points of value. Play: Panthers +7.5.

49ers +1.5 at Houston Texans
Books have Houston -1.5; our model makes it 49ers -3. Drivers: Texans’ subpar offensive line (+2.5 toward SF) and Jones’s solid passing this year (+1), with San Francisco’s banged-up defense (-1.5) as the counter. ~4.5 points of value. Play: 49ers +1.5.