Week 7 Recap

A decent bounce-back week going 5-3 overall including 4-3 on our spread picks bringing us to 31-24 on the year with 25-21 against the spread and 6-3 in our Moneyline and Adjusted Line picks.  

Quick warning there are two games that have pending bets depending on the status of the injured QBs.  Specifically, the Miami Dolphins vs Arizona Cardinals where at the current line if Tua is healthy I would stay away and if he is out for the game take the Cardinals at +3.  The next is the Los Angeles Chargers vs New Orleans Saints where if the Derek Carr is out, then take the Chargers at -7 and if he is healthy again stay away.

With that said let's get into this week's picks!

 Eagles +3 at Cincinnati Bengals:

The Philadelphia Eagles are 3-point underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals, but our model sees them at the favorite, projecting a narrow 1.3-point win for Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts’ passing ability (+1.9) and the Bengals’ poor pass defense (+1.2) are the key drivers pushing the model toward the Eagles. Although the Eagles' pass coverage against the Bengals is a concern as it impacts the prediction by -2.2 points.

The Buffalo Bills are 3-point favorites against the Seattle Seahawks, and our model projects them to win comfortably by 8.1 points. Josh Allen’s passing prowess (+2) and Seattle’s banged-up secondary (+1.5) significantly favor Buffalo. While the Seahawks' passing offense is projected as the main factor standing in the Bill's way contributing (-1.3),  Allen's form and Seattle's weakened secondary are the primary reasons for the model's confidence in Buffalo covering the spread.

The Chicago Bears are 1-point favorites against the Washington Commanders, and the model predicts a 5.2-point victory for Chicago. The Bears' elite pass coverage (+2) and Washington's shaky pass defense (+1.2) drive this pick, while the model also factors in the projection with Daniels playing, which drops the Bears projected line -1.2. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4.5-point underdogs against the Green Bay Packers, but our model sees the Jaguars keeping it close, projecting a 1.2-point win for Jacksonville. The Packers' mid-tier defense (+2.1) and Trevor Lawrence’s passing ability (+1.3) help the Jaguars’ cause, while Jordan Love's passing prowess (-2 points) negates negates a lot of the Jaguars' advantage for the model as it still projects the Packer's to win, but within the 4.5 point Vegas spread.

The Los Angeles Chargers are 7-point favorites against the New Orleans Saints, and our model projects them to win decisively by 13.4 points. Rattler's impressive passing performance (+4.8) and the Saints' injury-riddled offense (+4) tilt the model in favor of the Chargers. While the Chargers’ pass defense isn’t perfect (-1.5), it isn’t enough to sway the projection significantly.

The Arizona Cardinals are 3-point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins, but if Tua is out, the model gives the Cardinals a significant edge, projecting a 2.2-point win. Kyler Murray’s passing ability (+2.3) and the Dolphins’ reliance on their backup quarterback (+1.9) are key drivers, while the Cardinals’ pass defense matching up against the Dolphins’ wide receivers is still a point of concern (-2.7).