Week 15 Recap

A great week to get back on track going 4-1 bringing our record up to 57-46-1 overall including a 49-39-1 record against the spread.  The model is looking to continue its momentum as it tries to continue to feast on bad backup QBs and banged up teams with this week's picks:

The Indianapolis Colts are 4.5-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans, and our model projects a dominant 9.5-point win for the Colts. Mason Rudolph's poor passing ability (+3.5) and the Titans’ overall lack of offensive talent (+3.3) significantly favor Indianapolis. Although Richardson’s passing ability (-1.3) tempers the margin slightly, the model confidently supports the Colts to cover.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-point underdogs against the Las Vegas Raiders, but our model projects a 3.5-point win for the Jaguars. The Raiders’ starting QB’s poor passing ability (+3.8) and their weak pass defense (+2.5) heavily tilt the game in Jacksonville’s favor. The Jaguars’ struggling offensive line (-1.8) is a concern, but the model still favors the Jaguars to cover and win outright.

The Los Angeles Rams are 3-point favorites against the New York Jets, and our model projects a 7-point win for the Rams. The Jets’ average offensive performance (+2) and tough matchup of the Jet's coverage defense against the Rams' wide receivers (+2.5). However, the Rams’ poor pass coverage (-2.6) doesn’t completely offset their advantage, and the model favors Los Angeles to cover.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 4-point favorites against the Dallas Cowboys, and our model projects a 7-point win for the Bucs. Baker Mayfield’s strong passing ability (+3.2) and the Buccaneers’ overall offensive talent (+2.8) are significant factors. While the Bucs’ pass coverage is a minor concern (-2.1), the model sees them covering the spread comfortably.

The Philadelphia Eagles are 3.5-point favorites against the Washington Commanders, and our model projects a 6.5-point win for the Eagles. Philadelphia’s offensive talent (+2.5) and Jalen Hurts’ passing ability (+1) give them a clear edge. Dayden’s passing struggles (-2.2) further solidify the Eagles as the strong favorites to cover the spread.

The Bengals are 7.5-point favorites against the Cleveland Browns, and our model projects a large 13.5-point win for the Bengals.  The model loves to fade bad QBs on the road and the Brown's gave us a gift as sources state DTR will be the QB this week.  The Bengals are really good at scoring the football, but terrible at stopping teams from scoring.  In the Brown's the Bengals get to face off against a poor backup QB in DTR minimizing their weakness as DTR's poor passing ability +4.9, and the Brown's poor offensive talent +4.1 well outweigh the Bengals' poor pass coverage -2.6 which is why the model has the Browns as the strong favorites to cover the spread.