Week 16

A solid week going 4-2 leaves the model with an overall record of 42-29-1 against the spread (59.1%).  Will need another winning week if we want a solid chance at ending the season over 60%.  With that said here are this week's picks!

 Saints -4.5 vs Jets
Market is NO -4.5; model NO -8.5. Drivers: Jets’ poor QB play (+2.5) and overall bad offense (+2) tilt this hard to New Orleans, with the Saints’ own subpar offense (-1.5) the counter. ~4 points of value. Play: Saints -4.5.

Falcons -2.5 at Cardinals
Books ATL -2.5; model ATL -4.0. Cardinals’ banged-up offense (+2) and secondary (+1) help Atlanta, partly offset by the Falcons’ subpar pass defense (-1). About 1.5 points of value. Play: Falcons -2.5.

Panthers +3 vs Buccaneers
Line CAR +3; model CAR -1.0. Edges: Bucs’ poor secondary (+1.5) and subpar OL (+1.5). Counter: Panthers’ average defense (-1). Roughly 4 points of value to the dog. Play: Panthers +3 (sprinkle ML).

Bears +1.5 vs Packers
Market CHI +1.5; model CHI -1.0. Bears’ offensive weapons (+1.5) and Packers’ offensive injuries (+1) push Chicago’s way; Packers’ tough secondary (-1.5) trims it. ~2.5 points of value. Play: Bears +1.5.

Colts +4.5 vs 49ers
Books IND +4.5; model IND +1. Drivers: Colts’ offensive talent (+2) and 49ers’ poor secondary (+1.5) outweigh the Old Man Rivers' downgrade (-3). ~3.5 points of value. Play: Colts +4.5 .