Week 17 Recap

Tough break losing both the ML in overtime which also cost the +3.5 point spreads we had in both games.  From Payton playing scared football trying to play for a tie (somebody forget Burrow's on the side?) to Raheem Morris successfully taking two timeouts into Overtime it was rough. In the long run bad breaks will even out so we are looking for that luck to flip. Record sits at 62-54-1 overall including a 54-45-1 record against the spread.  An odd week has only a couple of picks with some gametime decisions needing to be made as we learn more about who is playing.

The Arizona Cardinals are 1-point underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers, but our model projects a 5.5-point win for Arizona. The 49ers’ backup QB on the road (+5.2) and Kyler Murray’s passing ability (+1) are significant factors favoring the Cardinals. While Arizona’s poor pass coverage (-1.5) is a concern, the model strongly supports the Cardinals to cover and win outright.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-point underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals, but our model projects a 3.5-point win for the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s strong pass defense (+1) and Wilson’s passing ability (+0.5) give them an edge. Joe Burrow’s passing ability (-1.8) is of course a concern, but the Steelers are still favored by the model to win outright.

The Los Angeles Chargers are 5.5-point favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders, and our model projects a dominant 12-point win for the Chargers. Their defense (+5) and effective running attack (+1.5) strongly favor Los Angeles. Aidan O’Connell’s passing ability is surprise a positive for the Raiders costing the Chargers (-0.25), but the model still loves the Chargers if they are playing its starters.