Season Win Totals & Week 1 Picks

 The NFL is back, and so am I, but with a shiny new updated model that trained 15% better than the old one. If there is a major difference between the old model I used last year and this year's model, I will highlight that in any of my picks. With that said, I would like to go over some of my projections for Season Win totals and after that I will go into this week's picks.

Currently, my favorite Over is the Atlanta Falcons, with an adjusted Over of 10.5 wins for +140 odds. The reason my model is so high on the Falcons, projecting over 12 wins for the team, is pretty simple. They replaced Desmond Ridder, a man who should not have been starting at QB for any team, with Kirk Cousins. Even projecting Kirk Cousins as a very mid-tier QB considering his injury, the Falcons—who also have by far the easiest schedule in the NFL—are projected to run away in a very weak NFC South.

Now, my favorite Under for the year pains me, but we are moving to the AFC South where the Titans Under 5.5 wins gives you +150 odds. My model loves that, as it is projecting the Titans to only have 3.4 wins on the year (ooof). I also took them at 12-to-1 odds to have the worst record in the NFL. My remaining picks are below.

Bears -4.5 vs. Tennessee Titans: Vegas has the Chicago Bears as 4.5-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans. Our model agrees with this assessment but goes even further, projecting the Bears to win by 9.2 points. My model has the Titans projected as the worst team in the league and the Bears as slightly outperforming their Vegas season expectations. However, I take this more as an indictment against the Titans, as Will Levis is projected to be a below-average starter, and my model loves to fade below-average starters on the road.

Cowboys +2.5 at Cleveland Browns: Vegas is projecting the Browns as 2.5-point favorites at home against the Cowboys. The model is less decisive, essentially calling it a toss-up. The Browns are extremely tough at home, especially on defense, but the Cowboys have had an elite offense the past couple of years.

Chargers -3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders: The Los Angeles Chargers are 3-point favorites at home against the Las Vegas Raiders, according to Vegas. Our model sees an even more favorable outcome for the Chargers, projecting a 6.5-point victory. Although everyone is calling this a home game for the Raiders given the two teams' respective fan bases, I still like Herbert's ability to run up the score a bit versus the Raiders.

Patriots +8.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals: I'm not thrilled that the model chose the Patriots here, as I would have generally stayed away given Burrow's historically slow starts and the Patriots looking bad on offense in the preseason. However, the model sees Jacoby Brissett as a serviceable starting QB who can go on the road and keep the game close.

Dolphins -3.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Vegas has the Miami Dolphins as 3.5-point favorites at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Our model agrees but pushes the margin wider, predicting a 7.3-point victory for the Dolphins. Interestingly, the old model had the Dolphins only as 2.5-point favorites. This game could highlight just how much the Jaguars struggle against more dynamic offenses like Miami's.

Falcons -3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Falcons are one of the teams I have projected to outperform their season over/under, so it’s no surprise to see them here. Both teams will be playing with new QBs, and we will see who has the better upgrade. I actually dropped Kirk Cousins' ratings to be roughly in line with Russell Wilson's, even though Kirk has drastically outplayed him the last two years. This decision was more based on Kirk coming off a major injury rather than an endorsement of Russell Wilson's play.