Week 2 Recap

Another solid weekend going 6-3 total record for our picks by going 5-3 against the spread and 1-0 in our Adjusted & Moneyline picks. For the second weekend in a row we got down early in our most confident pick and ML game, but was heavily assisted by a poor decision from Will Levis. 

 And for the second week in a row the comeback critical not only our weekly picks, but also our Season picks as we have the Titans Under and the Jets Over on season wins.  Now for this  week's picks!

 Eagles +2.5 at New Orleans Saints: Vegas has the Philadelphia Eagles as 2.5-point underdogs against the New Orleans Saints as the Saints have been off to a red-hot start. Our model, doesn't overreact in situations like this and sees the Eagles as the favorite, projecting them to win outright by 3.9 points. The Eagles are coming off a tough game that was predicted to be closer than the Vegas line by our model.  If the Saints win big in this game, I may have to relook the individual player projections, but I'm literally betting the Saints will revert closer to the mean.

Vikings +2.5 vs. Houston Texans: The Minnesota Vikings are 2.5-point underdogs at home against the Houston Texans according to Vegas. The Vikings have been one of the surprise teams of the year, but are model I don't think is overreacting.  Houston is traveling a decent distance to face a tough defense in Minnesota.  Hopefully, Justin Jefferson will be good to go in the matchup. 

Bengals -8 vs. Washington Commanders: The Cincinnati Bengals are 8-point favorites against the Washington Commanders, and our model predicts an even larger margin, forecasting a 9.2-point victory for the Bengals. The Bengals looked rough the first game, but played a lot better in their loss to Kansas City this past weekend.  Interestingly, the old model only had the Bengals by 2.2, but with Burrow in great form, we expect Cincinnati to dominate and cover comfortably.

Jets -6 vs. New England Patriots: The New York Jets are 6-point favorites against the New England Patriots, and our model backs this prediction, projecting a 7.4-point victory. The Jets have shown resilience after a loss to the 49ers, and with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, they remain a dangerous team. Our model has increased its confidence in the Jets' defense, predicting that it will shut down the Patriots' offense while Rodgers puts up enough points to cover the spread. The old model favored the Jets by only 4.2, but the current projection sees an even more convincing win.

Panthers +5.5 at Las Vegas Raiders: Vegas has the Carolina Panthers as 5.5-point underdogs against the Las Vegas Raiders. Our model, however, predicts a much closer contest, with the Panthers only losing by 1.5 points.  Bryce Young being benched is driving the model's decision as Andy Dalton is projected to play like an average starter which is 10x better than what Bryce Young's projection on the road with Max Crosby chasing him around was projected to play. 

Falcons +4.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs: The Atlanta Falcons are 4.5-point underdogs at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have won two games in around that came down to the wire and the model is predicting the same here with the Chiefs favored by just 0.1 points on the road.