Week 3

Back-to-Back 3-2 weeks to start the year has us sitting at 6-4 on the year right on projection for our goal of 6-% against the spread. Again we were alive for a potential 4–1 week, but the Jaguars like to go for it on 4th and 5 instead of kicking field goals to go up by 6.  The Bucs had me nervous as their kicker blew a 38 yard field goal to solidify a win against the spread.  Baker came through clutch though and drove the Bucs down the field scoring a touchdown to win the Bucs the game and us the week!  Our 3-2 weeks will have to end as I only have 4 picks for the week (pending any late breaking updates).  In the following weeks I will start to give my initial picks Sunday night or Monday morning as the spread on 2 other games I was going to pick moved a couple points including the Raiders vs the Commanders who went from +6 to +2 (now +3.5) and the Falcons vs the Panthers were the Falcons went from -3.5 to now -5.5.  Both of those games met the criteria to take before the line adjustments.  With that said here are this week's picks!

 Browns +9.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Market has Packers -9.5 in Cleveland; our model thinks the Browns can keep it a little closer playing at home +2.5. The case: Joe Flacco’s passing form (+0.5) and Cleveland’s pass rush (+0.5) vs. Green Bay’s overall offensive talent (-1.5). 

Lions +6 at Baltimore Ravens
Books are Ravens -6; our model trims it to Ravens -2. Detroit’s offensive talent (+1.5) and Jared Goff’s passing (+1.0) narrow the gap, while Baltimore’s offensive talent (-1.5) keeps this closer than the number. About 4 points of value to the Lions. Lean: Lions +6 (Ravens still likeliest winner).  I am worried about the Lamar Jackson versus NFC effect, but the model isn't as concerned.

Broncos +2.5 at Los Angeles Chargers
Market makes LAC -2.5; we make Broncos -1. Denver’s elite secondary (+1.0) matches up well and the Chargers’ average secondary (+1.0, in Denver’s favor) is attackable. However, Justin Herbert’s recent passing form (-1.5) hurts Denver's chances. ~3.5 points of value. Play: Broncos +2.5; consider a light ML sprinkle.

Eagles -3.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Line is Eagles -3.5; model is Eagles -6.5. Drivers: Philadelphia’s offensive talent (+1.5) and defensive talent (+1.5), with the Rams’ offensive talent (-1.5) as a drag. About 3 points of value toward Philly. Play: Lay the -3.5 with the Eagles.