Week 2 Picks

 Solid start to the NFL Season going 5-3 total record for our picks by going 4-3 against the spread and 1-0 in our Adjusted & Moneyline picks. It was looking dark to start the season with the highest confidence pick the Bears +4.5 down 17-3 at the half and looking hopeless.   However, the model chose them due to a bad QB on the road and the model definitely saw something:  

The comeback was huge for our weekly picks and also nice for our Season picks as we have the Titans Under and the Bears Over.  Now that we got off to a solid start to the Season let's jump into this Week's picks with the theme being overreaction.   

Jets -4 at Tennessee Titans:

Vegas has the New York Jets as 4-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans. Our model is even more bullish on the Jets, projecting them to win by 9.6 points. The Titans are projected as one of the worst teams in the league and already nailed the first week's pick.  Now the Jets are on the road again after getting beat by 13 points to the 49ers.  However, Rodgers played relatively solid and makes me a little more confident in the above-average Season projections I gave him for his play.  The model likes the Jets defense to shut down the tightens and Rodgers to score enough points on offense for a comfortable cover.

The Baltimore Ravens are 9.5-point favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders, according to Vegas. Our model agrees with this assessment, projecting a Ravens victory by an even larger margin of 9.99 points. The Raiders have struggled on the road in recent seasons, and with a lack of dynamic offense.  Also, the model is usually conservative on blowout games so the fact they are favoring the Ravens even more is a promising sign.  

Now we're moving into the overreaction section.  The Browns were awful against the Cowboys and because of that they are getting 4 points on the road against the Jaguars.  However, the model is a machine and only slightly factors in the previous games outcome which is why it selected the Browns defense to travel and Watson to have some type of a bounce back game against the Jaguars favoring the Bowns by a point.

Vegas has the Atlanta Falcons as 6.5-point underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles. However, our model is much less pessimistic about the Falcons' chances, predicting them to lose by only 1.38 points.  Again the Falcons performed poorly against an extremely stout Pittsburgh defense, but the model likes them to keep it within a touchdown against the Eagles.

The Chicago Bears are 6.5-point underdogs on the road against the Houston Texans.  This line makes sense given the Bears poor performance and I was surprised the model didn't predict more than the Texans by 1.33 points. However, the Bears have a stout defense which will be put to the test against CJ Stroud and his arsenal of weapons.  

Vegas has the Los Angeles Chargers as 6.5-point favorites traveling to the Carolina Panthers. Our model, however, is leaning toward the Panthers outperforming this spread, predicting them to only lose by 1.79 points. Despite being underdogs, Carolina could keep this game closer than anticipated, especially with their dynamic offensive pieces.  I'm not in personal love with this pick as I hate betting on bad QBs even ones at home.

Vegas has the Indianapolis Colts as 3.5-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers. Our model goes even further, predicting the Colts to win by 7.3 points. I think the model would have really hammered the Packers if they had been on the road as bad QBs do not travel and Love's backup Malik Willis is a bad QB.  Hopefully, Richardson can perform well enough for the Colts on the road.

The Cincinnati Bengals are 6-point underdogs on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Bengals had the worse loss of last week and are further rewarded going to the two-time defending champs home. Our model is more optimistic than most about the Bengals' chances, predicting them to lose by only 2.76 points. With Joe Burrow at the helm and a Bengals offense that has the ability to keep games close, this could be a much tighter contest than Vegas projects.