Week 2

 We’re on the board at 3–2 to start the year.  Not a heater, but exactly the kind of week that stacks into a great season. We were live for 4–1, but Falcon's kicker Younghoe Koo pulled the rug out from under us. However, unlike myself the model has no feelings and is fine with going right back to picking the Falcons this week.  Without further ado below is that pick and 4 others:

 Falcons +4.5 at Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta is a 4.5-point road dog, but our model makes it roughly Falcons +1.5 . The case leans on the Falcons’ overall offensive talent (+1.5) and a capable secondary (+0.5). The counterweight is Minnesota’s offensive talent (+2.0). With 3 points of value versus the number, we like Atlanta to cover.

Jets +7 vs. Buffalo Bills
Market sits Bills -7 on the road; our model is more modest at Bills -3.5. Buffalo’s secondary (+1.5) and overall defense (+0.5) keep them in control, but Josh Allen’s passing form (-1.5) trims the margin. That creates ~3.5 points of value toward the Jets. Lean: take the touchdown with New York; Bills still likeliest winner, but the cover side is Jets +7.  

Jaguars +3.5 at Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas has Jacksonville +3.5; our model flips this to Jags -0.5 (JAX by a hair). Drivers: Bengals’ pass coverage (+1.0) is bad and Trevor Lawrence’s passing (+0.5) looks to take advantage.  However, on the flip side Joe Burrow’s current passing form (-2.0) stands as a mitigating factor. About a 4-point swing from market—grab the points with the Jags and consider a small ML sprinkle.

Giants +6 at Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is laying 6 at home, but our model likes the Giants to cover at +2.5. Cowboys’ pass coverage (+1.0) and line vs. Giants’ D-line (+1.0) are positives for the Giants, yet Dallas’s overall offensive talent (-2.0) drags the projection down. 

Buccaneers +2.5 at Houston Texans
Market has Tampa Bay +2.5; model says Bucs -0.5. Baker Mayfield’s passing (+1.5) is the primary tailwind, with Houston’s shaky O-line (+1.0 toward TB) also factoring in; C.J. Stroud’s passing (-1.0) is the counter. Roughly a 3-point edge vs. the spread. Lean Bucs +2.5 and sprinkle ML.